Silver has slipped back toward $68 after its latest rally lost momentum, putting the metal at an important point ahead of U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. Spot silver fell 1.3% to around $68.01 early Tuesday, retreating alongside gold after precious metals recently benefited from lower long-term Treasury yields and a softer U.S. dollar.
The near-term silver price prediction now revolves around whether buyers can reclaim resistance at $68.38 to $68.51 and build another move toward $70. The longer-term picture is less straightforward. JPMorgan expects silver to fall toward $63 during the fourth quarter of 2026, while the Silver Institute estimates the market will record a fifth consecutive annual supply deficit. CoinCodex takes the opposite side of the debate with a considerably more bullish forecast for late 2026.
Silver Slips Toward $68 Ahead of Jackson Hole
Silver’s retreat comes as traders shift their attention from the recent decline in Treasury yields toward the next major U.S. monetary policy catalysts. Upcoming PCE inflation data and Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech could influence expectations for how long interest rates remain elevated.
That matters for silver because the metal does not generate income. Persistent inflation could encourage the Fed to maintain tighter monetary conditions, supporting yields and creating a more difficult environment for precious metals. A softer inflation reading or a less hawkish message from Warsh could have the opposite effect, particularly if the dollar and longer-term Treasury yields continue to weaken.
The timing is significant because silver is already attempting to recover from a sharp short-term sell-off. Rather than entering Jackson Hole with clear upward momentum, the metal is trading just below an important resistance area. The reaction to the next macro signals could therefore determine whether $68 becomes a base for another rally or gives way to a deeper retracement.
JPMorgan Sees Silver Falling Toward $63
J.P. Morgan Global Research presents one of the more cautious institutional forecasts for silver. The bank expects the metal to reach $63 an ounce during the fourth quarter of 2026 and average approximately $70 across the full year, significantly below its previous expectations.
Easing tightness in the physical silver market is one factor behind the downgrade. JPMorgan also cited softer industrial demand in some markets and the possibility of higher global interest rates, both of which could reduce the support silver received during its earlier rally.
The $63 forecast does not necessarily imply a collapse in silver’s longer-term trend. It would instead take the metal back toward an important technical area that has supported the broader recovery. Silver’s 50-week exponential moving average currently sits near $63.93, almost directly in line with JPMorgan’s fourth-quarter target.
That overlap makes the $63 to $64 region particularly important. A correction toward that area followed by renewed buying could preserve the larger bullish structure. A sustained breakdown beneath it would provide stronger evidence that silver’s recovery has lost momentum.
Supply Deficit Keeps the Bullish Case Alive
The physical market offers a notable counterargument to JPMorgan’s cautious forecast. According to the Silver Institute’s World Silver Survey 2026, the silver market is expected to record a deficit of 40.3 million ounces this year.
That would mark the fifth consecutive annual supply shortfall. Persistent deficits can provide underlying price support because demand continues to exceed newly available supply, even if the immediate effect on prices can be overshadowed by macroeconomic conditions and changes in investor positioning.
The tension between these forces helps explain silver’s uncertain outlook. Easing physical tightness can reduce the urgency that previously pushed prices higher, while the continuing structural deficit limits the argument that the underlying supply situation has completely normalized.
For investors, the key question is whether investment demand strengthens enough to complement that supply backdrop. Lower yields and a weaker dollar would make that outcome more likely, while higher-for-longer interest rates could allow macro pressure to dominate the physical deficit in the short term.
Silver Faces Resistance at $68.38-$68.51
The immediate technical picture remains cautious. A 15-minute chart shared by Eagle Pips Pro shows silver attempting to rebound following a steep decline, with the metal trading around $68.04 and approaching resistance near $68.38.
The chart focuses on a possible retracement into this resistance area before another downside move. If sellers successfully defend approximately $68.38 to $68.51, the bearish short-term structure would remain intact and the $66.96 area could return to focus.
That scenario depends on resistance holding. A sustained move above roughly $68.51 would weaken the setup and indicate that buyers are beginning to reclaim territory lost during the latest sell-off.
From there, $70 becomes the more important psychological target. A convincing move above that level would provide stronger evidence that the recent decline was corrective rather than the beginning of a larger bearish move.
Weekly Silver Trend Remains Above Key Support
The weekly chart offers a more constructive picture. COMEX silver futures were recently around $68.04, while the 50-week exponential moving average stood near $63.93. Despite recent weakness, silver therefore remains above one of its more important long-term trend indicators.
Weekly RSI around 51.1 also sits slightly above the neutral 50 threshold. Momentum is improving from weaker levels seen during the recent correction, although the reading remains far from the type of strength that would confirm a decisive bullish breakout.
The combination leaves silver in a broadly neutral-to-constructive position. The market has not yet regained enough momentum to confirm another major advance, but neither has the latest correction broken the longer-term recovery structure.
The 50-week average near $63.93 is likely to become increasingly important if selling pressure returns. Holding above it would keep the broader trend intact, while a sustained break beneath it would align the technical picture more closely with JPMorgan’s cautious fourth-quarter outlook.
CoinCodex Silver Price Prediction
According to the latest CoinCodex silver price prediction, the metal could remain close to current levels in August before entering a much stronger advance during the final months of 2026. The model places the August average near $70.72, but September marks a clear change in momentum, with the projected average jumping to $84.02 and prices potentially approaching $96.27.
The bullish trend strengthens further during the fourth quarter. CoinCodex sees silver averaging approximately $102.82 in October before reaching $125.80 in November, the strongest month in the forecast. The November high of $137.81 implies potential gains of roughly 101% from the model’s reference level. December is expected to remain strong at an average of $116.47, although the broader trading range points to increasing volatility after the projected peak.
Silver could then settle into a less aggressive trend during the first half of 2027. The model keeps average prices above $100 from January through May, with February standing out at roughly $114.12. March has one of the widest projected ranges, stretching from about $87 to nearly $128, indicating that substantial price swings could accompany the consolidation.
The correction becomes more pronounced heading into summer, with average prices projected to fall below $90 in June and toward $79.91 in July. A recovery to approximately $88.70 is forecast for August 2027. Overall, CoinCodex sees the largest upside concentrated in late 2026, followed by a volatile normalization period that still leaves silver well above its current price.
Can Silver Reclaim $70?
The immediate market setup is much less dramatic than CoinCodex’s longer-term targets suggest. Before silver can seriously challenge $100, it first needs to overcome resistance between $68.38 and $68.51 and establish a stronger position above $70.
Failure to clear that area would keep $66.96 in play, with the more important long-term support zone emerging around $63 to $64. That region combines silver’s 50-week moving average with JPMorgan’s fourth-quarter forecast, making it one of the most consequential downside areas to watch.
The bullish case rests on a different combination of factors. A fifth consecutive annual supply deficit, lower Treasury yields and renewed dollar weakness could give buyers the conditions needed to regain control. Softer inflation or a less hawkish Fed message would strengthen that scenario.
