Gold has pulled back toward $4,640 after reaching its highest level in more than three months, putting the focus on whether the latest decline is simply a pause within the broader recovery or the start of a deeper correction. The immediate gold price forecast now hinges on support around $4,615 to $4,623 and resistance between $4,700 and $4,712, with both levels potentially coming into play as markets prepare for fresh U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech.
The metal enters this key macro period with several supportive factors still intact. A softer U.S. dollar, declining long-term Treasury yields and renewed concerns over the sustainability of U.S. government borrowing have helped underpin demand. Investors following the longer-term gold price prediction will now be watching whether those forces are strong enough to turn the latest pullback into another buying opportunity.
Gold Pulls Back After Rally Toward $4,700
Spot gold slipped 0.2% to around $4,640.39 an ounce early Tuesday after reaching a three-month high, while U.S. gold futures held near $4,696. The retreat follows a strong recovery that brought the metal back within striking distance of the psychologically important $4,700 level.
Part of that advance has been linked to weakness in the U.S. dollar and falling long-term Treasury yields. The dollar index was near 98.96 during Asian trading on Tuesday, while bond markets continued to digest the Treasury Department’s decision to increase the size of liquidity-support buybacks for longer-dated securities.
The next major catalysts could come from U.S. PCE inflation and Warsh’s first Jackson Hole address as Fed chair. A stronger inflation reading or a hawkish policy message could keep interest-rate expectations elevated, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. Softer inflation or indications that the Fed is becoming more comfortable with easier policy conditions could instead provide the catalyst needed for another attempt at $4,700.
That makes the coming sessions particularly important for the short-term trend. Gold has already demonstrated that buyers are willing to return following its previous correction, but the market still needs to convert the recent recovery into a convincing breakout before the next leg higher is confirmed.
Gold Tests $4,615-$4,623 Support After Rejection
The short-term gold structure shows gold retreating after testing the $4,680 to $4,700 region. With the price recently around $4,630 on the referenced 15-minute chart, the metal is approaching the first significant demand area between $4,615 and $4,623.
Forex Expertise identifies this band as an intraday liquidity and reaction zone. If buyers successfully defend it, gold could rebound toward $4,658 to $4,668 before challenging swing-high liquidity around $4,680 to $4,692. That would place the market back within striking distance of the most important resistance area.
The $4,700 to $4,712 range is the key bullish trigger. Sustained 15-minute acceptance above $4,712 would invalidate the bearish setups highlighted on the chart and strengthen the argument that the correction has run its course. A successful breakout would also reinforce the broader recovery from gold’s earlier decline from above $5,000.
The downside structure is equally clear. Losing $4,615 would expose support around $4,588 to $4,597, followed by a stronger demand zone at approximately $4,558 to $4,568. A decisive move beneath $4,558 would make the current decline harder to characterize as a routine retest and would increase the probability of a more substantial correction.
Weekly Gold Trend Remains Constructive
While the intraday chart shows a market at an important decision point, the weekly structure remains considerably more constructive. COMEX gold futures were recently near $4,693, comfortably above the 50-week exponential moving average around $4,278.
Weekly RSI near 59.7 provides another supportive signal. Momentum has recovered above the neutral 50 level without moving into overbought territory, suggesting the rebound still has room to develop if buyers regain control. This combination of improving momentum and price holding above a rising long-term moving average keeps the larger uptrend intact despite the current pullback.
The 50-week EMA therefore represents an important structural reference if volatility increases. Remaining well above it would favor the interpretation that gold is recovering from its previous correction, while a sustained deterioration toward or below that average would materially weaken the bullish setup.
TD Securities has also maintained a supportive longer-term view, although the firm cautioned that it may be premature for gold to reach its $5,350 target if persistent inflation keeps interest rates elevated. For now, the nearer-term battle remains concentrated around $4,615 on the downside and $4,700 to $4,712 on the upside.
Treasury Buybacks Add to the Hard-Asset Narrative
Fiscal concerns are also feeding into the bullish argument for gold. Robert Kiyosaki has renewed his criticism of the U.S. dollar following the Treasury’s decision to increase the maximum size of liquidity-support buybacks in the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year maturity sectors from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation.
Kiyosaki characterized the development as another example of policymakers creating “fake dollars” and argued that investors should favor scarce assets such as gold, silver and Bitcoin. The technical distinction is significant, however. Treasury buybacks exchange existing government securities and do not directly expand the monetary base in the same manner as Federal Reserve quantitative easing.
Still, the announcement comes against a backdrop of federal debt above $40 trillion and elevated long-term borrowing costs. If investors increasingly interpret interventions in government debt markets as part of a broader trend toward currency debasement and fiscal stress, demand for hard assets could remain elevated even when short-term interest-rate expectations create volatility for gold.
CoinCodex Gold Price Prediction
According to the latest CoinCodex gold price prediction, gold could move substantially higher through the remainder of 2026 before entering a more volatile phase during 2027. The model initially calls for relatively restrained gains in August, with an average projected price around $4,792 and a high near $4,890, broadly consistent with the idea that gold first needs to clear its current resistance structure.
The forecast becomes considerably more bullish in September and October. September’s projected average climbs above $5,370, while October moves above $6,100 and carries an upper target near $6,356. If that trajectory materializes, the current battle around $4,700 would represent an early stage of a much larger breakout rather than the upper boundary of the recovery.
The strongest acceleration in 2026 is projected during the final two months of the year. CoinCodex sees the November average approaching $6,970, with potential highs above $7,500. December’s average rises further to roughly $7,434, while the upper end of the forecast reaches approximately $7,631. That would represent upside of more than 60% relative to the model’s reference level.
The bullish trajectory extends into early 2027. January’s average forecast rises above $7,700 before February pushes to roughly $8,392. March contains the most aggressive upside target in the supplied forecast, with a potential high around $9,234, almost double the reference price used by the model.
The outlook becomes less straightforward after that peak. Average projections moderate from around $8,090 in April to $7,850 in May and $7,231 in June. By July, the average falls below $7,000 before recovering toward approximately $7,566 in August 2027. The pattern suggests that CoinCodex expects the most explosive phase to occur between late 2026 and the first quarter of 2027, followed by a sizable consolidation rather than uninterrupted appreciation.
Can Gold Break Above $4,700?
Gold’s next move is likely to be decided first by the $4,615 to $4,623 support band rather than the more ambitious targets projected for late 2026 and 2027. Holding that area would preserve the immediate bullish setup and give buyers another opportunity to attack $4,700 to $4,712, particularly if inflation data or Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks push yields and the dollar lower.
A break below $4,558 would change that picture and increase the risk of a deeper correction, even though the weekly trend would remain supported by the rising 50-week EMA. Conversely, acceptance above $4,712 would provide the clearest short-term evidence that the three-month-high breakout has further room to run.
For gold investors, the combination of Federal Reserve policy, fiscal concerns and technical support makes the coming sessions particularly consequential. CoinCodex’s longer-term forecast points to much higher prices, but the market must first prove it can turn $4,700 from resistance into support before targets above $5,000, and eventually the model’s more aggressive 2027 projections, come back into focus.
